The portal panic doesn't survive the math
The portal panic doesn't survive the math.
Every offseason the same number gets shouted: a quarter of FBS players are in the portal. It sounds like the building is on fire.
It isn't. Entering the portal isn't transferring. Count the athletes who actually enrolled somewhere new and about 9% of Division I moved last year — fewer than the ~13% of regular undergraduate students (non-athletes) who transfer in a normal year. Measured athlete against classmate, athletes move less than the student body sitting next to them.
Why it matters
If you're a brand tying a deal to a roster spot, an AD setting a retention budget, or an advisor counseling a move, you may be planning around an exodus that isn't happening — and missing the shift that is.
Between the lines
Outside the revenue sports, most Division I athletes barely move — and they move for the reasons they always have: playing time, a coaching change, fit, being closer to home. Money isn't their story.
The three revenue sports — FBS football, men's and women's basketball — are different. They transfer at multiples of everyone else, and money leads their reasons in a way it does nowhere else in college athletics.
One portal in name. Two markets underneath. The one generating all the noise is the smaller of the two.
What it means for you
Brands: A partnership anchored to a roster spot is a bet on the smaller, more volatile portal. Build relationships that travel when the athlete does.
Administrators: For most of your roster, money isn't the reason they'd leave — which means you can keep them without outspending anyone.
Service providers: A bigger number isn't always a better deal once role, fit, and taxes are in the math. The advisor who says so out loud earns trust.
The bottom line
There are two portals and only one of them runs on money. Retention plans, partnership terms, and advice that treat all transfers as one market will keep solving the wrong problem.
The full breakdown — the exact why-split, the seven findings, and what each segment should do about it — is in this month's NIL Forum Research Poll called "The Two Portals." Access it by becoming a member at NIL Forum.
About the NIL Forum and Bill Carter
The NIL Forum is the advantage for people making NIL decisions — providing monthly live speakers, proprietary data, and networking. NIL Forum Founder Bill Carter has advised brands on Name, Image, Likeness for 25 years — first in pro sports, now at the college level. He was the Co-Founder of the Gen Z sports agency Fuse, which he sold in 2019. In 2020, he founded Student-Athlete Insights and consults on NIL strategy with Fortune 500 companies and 30+ DI universities.