More than 10,500 college football players entered the transfer portal in a single 15-day window this January — and almost every policy response assumes NIL is the cause. New data from 1,060 portal entrants tells a more complicated story: seven of the top ten reasons athletes transfer are traditional, pre-dating both NIL and the portal itself. NIL didn't create the desire to leave — it removed the penalty for acting on it.
Read More48% of athletes felt confident at the moment they signed their first NIL deal. Looking back, only 15% rated themselves as actually prepared. That 33-point gap — what behavioral economists call the confidence trap — is the strongest predictor of poor financial outcomes in sudden-income populations.
Read MoreThe House v. NCAA settlement created the most structured NIL oversight system in college sports history. Eight months in, the numbers don't add up — and new data from the NIL Research Poll shows why.
Read MoreNIL has a grift problem. No barrier to entry means manufactured credibility runs rampant. Here's a 3-filter test for separating the people worth trusting from the ones selling certainty they don't have.
Read MoreLottery winners. NFL retirees. Inheritance recipients. The research on sudden income is consistent — and the pattern maps directly onto NIL. Our new survey data suggests the conditions for poor outcomes are already in place among college athletes. The full report drops in April, exclusively for NIL Forum members.
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