NIL Doesn't Win Recruits
NIL Doesn't Win Recruits. It Breaks Ties.
New data from the NIL Forum Research Poll on the entering class — high school prospects mid-decision, plus the freshmen and sophomores who just chose — tests whether NIL has taken over recruiting. It hasn't. It's just changed how the old factors get decided.
By the numbers
68% of all prospects name a traditional, pre-NIL factor — playing time, coaching staff, team culture — as the single biggest reason for their school choice.
32% of revenue-sport recruits (FBS football, men's and women's basketball) name NIL or revenue sharing as that top factor. Outside those three sports, it's 4%.
74% of revenue-sport recruits say the bigger NIL/revenue-share number is what decides it when two schools are otherwise even.
Between the lines
NIL didn't rewrite the recruiting board. Coaches, culture, and playing time still lead the board that existed before revenue sharing did. What changed is quieter: NIL has become the tiebreaker.
Put two comparable programs in front of a revenue-sport recruit and the bigger number usually wins the coin flip — which means a staff that's even on everything else can still lose the recruit over a gap in the offer.
That's the visible layer. Underneath it, this month's research also measures something more consequential: how well recruits actually understand what they're being offered — where revenue share ends and third-party NIL begins. The gap there is wider than the tiebreaker story alone suggests, and it splits sharply by sport.
The bottom line
Whoever's at the table — administrator, coach, advisor, agent — the NIL number doesn't need to win the recruit. It needs to survive being tied. Name the traditional strength you'd stake the recruitment on, and lead with that before the number ever comes up. The program that wins the tie before it's a tie never has to worry about losing the coin flip.
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About
The NIL Forum is the community for people making NIL decisions — providing monthly live speakers, proprietary data, and networking. NIL Forum Founder Bill Carter has advised brands on Name, Image, Likeness for 25 years — first in pro sports, now at the college level. He consults on NIL strategy with Fortune 500 companies and 30+ DI universities.