Three expert witness engagements. Same question every time: what is the athlete being paid for? On August 1, that question becomes federal policy — and "fair market value" becomes the line between legitimate NIL and fraudulent NIL.
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61% of college athletes cite a non-income reason as their primary motivation for NIL participation — and the most common ones are building a personal brand, gaining business experience, and exploring career paths. The NIL industry is largely building strategy around the income-motivated athlete. The data says that's the minority.
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More than 10,500 college football players entered the transfer portal in a single 15-day window this January — and almost every policy response assumes NIL is the cause. New data from 1,060 portal entrants tells a more complicated story: seven of the top ten reasons athletes transfer are traditional, pre-dating both NIL and the portal itself. NIL didn't create the desire to leave — it removed the penalty for acting on it.
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